FAMOUS CLERMONT is a tentative selection in a wide-open affair, following an effortless 18-length romp at Haydock. The winner of that contest in 2022 went on to follow up in the Albert Bartlett, as The Nice Guy improved hugely for the rise in distance at Cheltenham. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Seabank Bistro repeats the feat this time around and is worth a small each-way wager. The course which has produced the most Bolts Up Daily winners of the Ayr Gold Cup is Goodwood, there has been a total number of 5 winners of this race who ran at Goodwood last time out. The next best courses which have produced the second most winners are Ripon and Haydock, there has been a total number of 3 winners from each of those courses. When looking at the over-rounds for the last 20 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2006 when the race had an over-round of 122%.
- Looking at the winning odds over the last 13 renewals, the biggest-priced winner was Muntadab in 2016, winning for Roger Fell at odds of 33/1 under the guidance of P J McDonald.
- That Paul has opted for Tullyhill is a potential red herring this year because Mystical Power has a retained jockey – and there is nothing to separate them in the market as I write (Sunday afternoon).
- When Delta Work won this last year he prepped with a 13 length 6th of eight in the Boyne Hurdle at Navan; this year he’s prepped with a 15 length 6th of eight in the same race, so we all know where we are with him.
- The Fred Winter is like a game of poker with trainers keeping all sorts of tricks up their sleeves with these inexperienced horses.
- Paul Nicholls’ Stay Away Fay won last year’s Albert Bartlett Hurdle and has had a great start to his chasing career winning his first two and then running the race of his life when a close third in the Cotswold Chase last time out.
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- TAMFANA can win a well-deserved Group 1 in the Sun Chariot Stakes.
- His form this season is 1P1, wins in the Galway Hurdle (off 145 in a field of 19 on goodish ground) and a Naas Grade 3 in a small field on soft sandwiching a flunk when he was found to have been post-race clinically abnormal.
Teddy price looks early gift
Douvan has something to prove and has not been seen since sustaining a serious injury in this race a year ago. Min, who clocked a decent time at Leopardstown last time, could prove a bigger threat. You should also think about investigating some of the many free horse racing tips that float around online. These tipsters can provide a good way to identify opportunities, and to catch wind of likely strong performers before everyone else does. Of course, you need to be quick off the mark when you get your tips through, because the longer you wait, the worse your odds will get as more punters flock to back the tip.
The nine attributes that make City of Troy so special
Some of Britain’s first recorded race meetings were held during the reign of Henry II. William Fitzstephen, a cleric writing in the 12th century, recorded descriptions of St Bartholomew’s horse fair in London. Gordon Elliott has won this twice in the previous six seasons and has a host of strong chances. His main challenger looks like being Cool Survivor, who certainly has strong appeal from a mark of 140 on handicap debut, having finished a good fourth at Grade 1 level last time out.
Horse racing tips: 11-1 shot will relish the soft ground and can bolt up at Catterick
For example, the going at Cheltenham last week was Good and it was noticeable that connections did not want to risk some of their better class horses making seasonal returns and debuts on anything other than totally ideal jumping ground. It could be that the summer types have conditions swung back in their favour at this later stage of their campaigns. In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago. The question is whether he will transfer that form to hurdles. Live and Table Games have a 0% contribution, only Slots & instants count towards playthrough. Today, horse racing betting is a £4.6 billion per year industry.
Roksana – Stayers’ Hurdle – 7/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 8/1 Sky/Fred (NRNB)
The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.
The starter drops the flag and they’re off
If the ground dries out, it might be that connections of Honeysuckle decide to run over this two-and-a-half mile trip rather than the extended two of the Champion Hurdle. The hallmark of those runs, and indeed her run style generally, is being held together off the pace before cruising through to prevail comfortably. In so doing it is hard to peg the level of her form exactly, always leaving the impression there is more in the tank. Lightly raced, as is often the modus operandi with Willie Mullins’ better mares, Concertista has run just twice this term. She beat the same mare, Minella Melody, by nearly two lengths in a Grade 2 in November and then by more than six lengths in a Grade 3 at the turn of the year.
Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap Preview
Despite owner Michael O’Leary’s efforts to quash the hype, SAMCRO arrives with a sizeable reputation and his racecourse performances say that he deserves it. He has won all three hurdles races easily, including a Grade One at Leopardstown, and there is a strong suspicion we have yet to see just how could he is. Vision Des Flos showed the benefit of a wind operation when turning a competitive Exeter Listed race into a procession and should ensure Samcro earns his prize. Black Op represents the team that won Tuesday’s first race and they will have a solid line to novice form. Next Destination finished third in last year’s Champion Bumper here and has built on that level of form over hurdles.
MOST READ RACING
So we can get down to business, the business of this post being to review current trainer form for the big guns heading into Cheltenham Festival 2021. A Plus Tard has been exposed a couple of times in Festival G1 company now and is short enough for all that he’s hugely talented. Galvin may still be improving but 5/1 readily acknowledges that.
David Pipe sends a rare runner on the 710-mile round trip to Newcastle on Thursday
Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.
Cheltenham Festival 2024: Day One Preview, Tips
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- The form of his fourth in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury in the autumn is strong and if quicker ground ekes out a pound or two, he could cause a minor surprise.
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- It’s a yes for Dysart Dynamo, Constitution Hill and Jonbon but a ‘see you tomorrow’ for Sir Gerhard.
- By diving deeper into these resources, you can gain a better understanding of the form and trends in horse racing, allowing you to make more informed wagers.
- “It’s such a gamble bringing her over and it is such an expensive trip.
- It is worth noting that five-year-olds have failed to win since their allowance was removed, though some of the fancied ones (Allmankind, Saint Calvados) have been given, erm, interesting rides from the front.
Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.
Clearly not right when reopposing Jango Baie in that G1 he was pulled up on the soft ground there before beating the geegeez.co.uk syndicate horse Dartmoor Pirate into second at Huntingdon last time. The Pirate has since run a mighty fourth of 17 in the famously competitive EBF Final last Saturday, with Pauling novices filling out the first two places there! Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge. With the forecast being for persistent drizzle and light rain, official going of soft is a very short price. Gordon Elliott has won six of the last seven (one of them under the pseudonym Denise Foster) Festival cross country races and has an iron grip on a bid for a seventh. And yet it’s Henry de Bromhead who saddles the ante post favourite, Minella Indo.
- If we look at market position data instead, clear favourites in Grade 1 races have just edged into profit, albeit by only £6.77 (ROI +3.6%); backing ALL runners in the top four in the betting would have yielded a profit of £55.24 (ROI +6.8%).
- Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135).
- Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect.
- As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior.
- Unless there are two or more front-running types in the field, the balance of probabilities is that the race will be steadily run with an acceleration in the latter part of the contest.
- That seemed to signal a changing of the guard, an impression that recently turning ten has done nothing to dispel.
The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.
Michael O’Leary, the owner, speaks
Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.
Flooring Porter has had issues in the build up; Home By The Lee is improving but has more to find… The French horse has had a perfect prep, and jumps brilliantly. MT – ‘Waited with’ run style can be a positive in the Ultima where plenty of jockeys go off too quickly.
He will again face the second horse from that Grade 1, Notebook, if both stand their ground at the weekend, and the fact that Notebook is circa 5/1 third choice for Dublin’s Festival Chase speaks of the paucity of opposition once more. There is the not inconsiderable frame of Min betwixt and between in the weekend market but, in the same ownership as Chacun Pour Soi, it is unclear what might be gained from that pair locking horns. Mind you, they did last season, CPS prevailing by most of four lengths. The tl;dr (bit late now, I realise) is that five of the last six winners – four of them, like Shishkin, odds-on favourites – won by six lengths or more.
UPCOMING RACE
If you are scanning a race, spot a horse making its handicap debut (or even its second run in a handicap), and you don’t make a note to look a tad more closely at said runner, more fool you. Draw and run style seem to be fairly well subsumed into market prices these days; at least into starting price market prices. That leaves an opportunity on earlier shows to snaffle some value. But the big opportunity in my view is with draw and run style in concert.
Chase A Fortune
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- Whilst it’s perfectly fair to assume he didn’t stay there, the balance of his post-injury form requires a lot to be taken on trust regarding retained ability.
- It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall.
- Only 19 have shown up but, while they have failed to win, they have recorded an impressive five placed efforts (26.32% place rate vs 18.18% for the boys).
- Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter).
She was second in the Mare’s Novice Hurdle in 2021 and was a well beaten in last year’s Arkle but that was a much better race than this. She’s had four runs since that Arkle, winning twice and second twice. She’s genuine and always runs her race and still only a 7-year-old there is plenty of improvement to come from her I feel.
The one who might still be a little on the fat side is Minella Indo. 20/1 bar these, the first of which is Champ, now ten and last seen winning well in a Grade 1 hurdle. His last chase sighting was when pulling up after only six fences in the Gold Cup a year ago. Connections are publicly pointing towards this gig but I wonder if he might go t’other way in a very open looking and winnable Stayers’ Hurdle section. A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race. Best Mate famously reeled off a hat-trick of wins early in the century and, since then, both Kauto Star and Al Boum Photo have doubled up.
- Willie Mullins is the dominant player in this sphere over the last decade, his fifteen winners almost double that of the next man (Nicky Henderson has eight).
- The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts.
- At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses.
- REBEL’S ROMANCE, who is unbeaten in three starts in Europe, rates much the best option.
- But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved.
- William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.
In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.
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Another thing to consider is that new sports betting sites are more likely to offer generous offers to new punters (read our BlackType review or the Karamba sports review for more details). IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50. Recently purchased by top owner J P McManus, she can extend her winning sequence. The daughter of Shantou displayed her immense ability with a smart success at Punchestown in January, giving a pair of well-touted geldings weight and scoring with plenty in hand.
Still, better will have been expected overall and better will be needed if Shishkin’s price is not to flirt with odds-against between now and mid-March. Last year’s Arkle winner has excellent Cheltenham form, being three from three at the track including that Festival score. Dan Skelton trains this mare and she’s looked very good either side of a two length third to Paisley Park and Thyme Hill in the Grade 2 Long Walk Hurdle in December. Shady Operator could be an apt winner for players of this slightly snide angle.
You can also place single bets from the Bet Slip – just click the price in the Bet Slip. Amber Cottage, Cheltenham A cosy, semi-detached, holiday home built in traditional, honey-coloured Cotswold stone made even more fantastic thanks to shared facilities including an outdoor swimming pool. This special spot was also once part of the stables to a once neighbouring 18th-century coaching inn, with evidence of this time still seen in the cottage’s ancient, exposed beams. The area surrounding Cheltenham racecourse is one of idyllic beauty thanks to undulating hills, wild woodland and babbling streams. Cleeve Hill for example, where the Gold Cup originated, is the highest point both of the Cotswolds hill range and in Gloucestershire.
The number of runners in a race often has a bearing on the tempo at which the race is run; and that in turn has a notable influence over which horses in the field might be best suited. Again, we’re looking towards the extremes here, though, having said that, with the continued shrinkage of field sizes comes a problem for those one-paced galloping types. Good to soft has a similar, if slightly more consistent for prior winners of one to three on the same ground, profile. Good to firm shows a similar increase from going maidens to those with a single verdict on the same official turf, then a regressive profile for winners of two and three. Deviating the other way, to soft, we see a fairly consistent picture for winners of one to three previous races on soft turf.
Doddiethegreat might be Nicky’s main hope, but I’d not be dismissive of First Street either. Whilst we know him best as a two miler these days, he stayed this sort of trip earlier in his career, and he has won a handicap off a 3lb higher mark back in 2022. Another class animal with the right sort of mark from which to go well. Having written about these two horses, I was curious as to how Willie’s maiden winner to Grade 1 hurdlers have performed.
The best of the home guard could be Jpr One, trained by Joe Tizzard. Joe is in good form – two notable winners at Sandown’s big weekend fixture – and this one has a nice bit of experience after four chase outings. He unseated at the last over course and distance in November, when seemingly having the race in the bag, but had a win before and since. Matata is one of the pace angles in the field and that may see him do too much too soon, whereas Jpr One tends to be handy but off the speed. Closest to A Dream To Share in last year’s Grade 1 Punchestown bumper was Tullyhill, who got off the mark at the second time of asking over timber having been second on debut at odds of 1-8.
El Fabiolo “occasionally quite clumsy”, but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting – “jockey admitted falling off” last time. Won’t get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.
I’d rather take shorter when knowing the ground with him. In the end, I’m swerving The Goffer on the basis of the Irish record, which will of course be the wrong thing to do one of these years; but I definitely want a bit of the The Big Breakaway with the extended places as well. A bit of a wise guy horse on the preview circuit has been Mistergif, another Willie wunner, this one in the double green of Munir and Souede. Rated 75 or so on the flat in France, he failed to win in nine starts before trying hurdling. Under the new code, he was fifth in a Listed race on his debut and then second in a conditions event, both at Auteuil; but the horse that beat him on that final French start is zero from five (fallen three times, third once) since.